There is a simple image that comes up over and over on Reddit after a major model release, demonstrating how release cycles of the big four American labs are aligned. The cycle, however, is getting faster. Let's examine the releases, beginning with ChatGPT (GPT-3.5) on 2022-11-30.
2023 started with a date we all shall remember: 2023-03-14, when GPT-4 came out, proving that Gwern's scaling hypothesis — that more compute reliably produces smarter models — was working. We ended the year with Gemini 1.0, which was a PR disaster for Google due to edited edited AI demo videos. We closed 2023 with 7 major releases, averaging ~44.5 days between them.
2024 was stronger, with 9 major releases averaging only ~37.5 days between them. The biggest were GPT-4o and Sonnet 3.5, and we ended the year with the jaw-dropping o1 results on ARC-AGI and the amazing Gemini 2.0, which started the vibe-coding era — at least for me — with its generous rate limits and massive context window in AI Studio.
| Date | Lab | Release |
| :--------- | :-------- | :------------------------ |
| 2022-11-30 | OpenAI | ChatGPT (GPT-3.5) |
| 2023-03-14 | OpenAI | GPT-4 |
| 2023-03-14 | Anthropic | Claude (launch) |
| 2023-07-11 | Anthropic | Claude 2 |
| 2023-11-03 | xAI | Grok (launch) |
| 2023-11-06 | OpenAI | GPT-4 Turbo |
| 2023-11-21 | Anthropic | Claude 2.1 |
| 2023-12-06 | Google | Gemini 1.0 |
| 2024-02-15 | Google | Gemini 1.5 |
| 2024-03-04 | Anthropic | Claude 3 |
| 2024-03-28 | xAI | Grok-1.5 |
| 2024-05-13 | OpenAI | GPT-4o |
| 2024-06-21 | Anthropic | Claude 3.5 Sonnet |
| 2024-08-13 | xAI | Grok-2 |
| 2024-09-12 | OpenAI | o1-preview |
| 2024-12-05 | OpenAI | o1 |
| 2024-12-11 | Google | Gemini 2.0 |
| 2025-02-19 | xAI | Grok-3 |
| 2025-02-24 | Anthropic | Claude 3.7 Sonnet |
| 2025-02-27 | OpenAI | GPT-4.5 |
| 2025-03-25 | Google | Gemini 2.5 Pro |
| 2025-04-14 | OpenAI | GPT-4.1 |
| 2025-04-16 | OpenAI | o3 (and o4-mini) |
| 2025-05-22 | Anthropic | Claude Opus 4 + Sonnet 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | xAI | Grok-4 |
| 2025-08-07 | OpenAI | GPT-5 |
| 2025-11-12 | OpenAI | GPT-5.1 |
| 2025-11-17 | xAI | Grok-4.1 |
| 2025-11-18 | Google | Gemini 3 Pro |
| 2025-11-19 | Anthropic | Claude Sonnet 4.5 |
| 2025-11-24 | Anthropic | Claude Opus 4.5 |
| 2025-12-11 | OpenAI | GPT-5.2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Anthropic | Claude Opus 4.6 |
| 2026-02-05 | OpenAI | Codex 5.3 |
| 2026-02-11 | Anthropic | Claude Sonnet 4.6 |
| 2026-02-12 | Google | Gemini 3.1 Pro |
| 2026-02-17 | xAI | Grok 4.2 |2025 became an almost continuous firework with its 15 major releases, averaging only ~21.1 days between them. The year was nothing short of extraordinary: the stealth release of GPT-4.1 as Quasar Alpha on OpenRouter, the amazing o3, and we closed the year with Opus 4.5, which earned the biggest hype in the community and became a huge phenomenon over Christmas, marking the step change of next-generation models.
2026 started even stronger, with Opus 4.6 and Codex 5.3 released on the same day. What can we expect from this year? The wheel of the world’s most powerful models is spinning up. I’m sure we’ll switch to Ludicrous Speed.
